Research Article
Volume 6 Issue 4 - 2021
Age Prediction for COVID-19 Suspects and Contacts in Villa Clara Province, Cuba
Ricardo Osés Rodríguez1, Claudia Osés Llanes2, Rigoberto Fimia-Duarte3,4*, Alfredo González Meneses5, José Iannacone6,7, Thaináh Bruna Santos8 and Fran M Wilford González4
1Provincial Meteorological Center of Villa Clara, Cuba
2Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, XX Anniversary Policlinical, Santa Clara, Villa Clara, Cuba
3Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing (FTSE), University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UCM-VC), Cuba
4Career of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences (FCA), Central University “Marta Abreu” of Las Villas, Cuba
5Construction Enterprise of the Electric Industry of Villa Clara, Cuba
6Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Biodiversity (LEBA), Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics (FCNNM), Federico Villarreal National University (UNFV), The Agustino, Lima, Peru
7Faculty of Biological Sciences. Ricardo Palma University (URP), Santiago de Surco, Lima,Peru
8San Gregory University of Portoviejo, Portoviejo, Manabí, Ecuador
*Corresponding Author: Rigoberto Fimia-Duarte, Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing (FTSE), University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UCM-VC), Cuba.
Received: February 17, 2021; Published: March 23, 2021




Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic affecting planet Earth has had a peculiar development in Cuba. The objective of the research consisted in modeling by means of the methodology of the Regressive Objective Regression (ROR) two parameters/variables (age and number of contacts) inherent to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic causing the COVID-19, during the year 2020 and so far in 2021 in Villa Clara province, Cuba. Mathematical models were obtained by means of the ROR methodology that explain their behavior, being able to extract information from a white noise, which made it possible to make a long-term prognosis of contact cases, which can be estimated up to 13 steps ahead, allowing to take measures in clinical services, and thus avoid and decrease the number of deaths and complications in patients, since patients can be detected and treated with medication faster. The age of suspects can also be estimated using the ROR methodology, where the trend of age was increasing for contact cases, where all variables were significant, indicating that there is an increasing tendency for cases to decrease if control measures are increased. It is concluded that COVID-19, despite being a new disease, can be followed by means of mathematical modeling ROR, a better management of the pandemic, so we hope that this prognosis can help in decision making for the prediction age, suspects and contacts of COVID-19 in the Villa Clara province and Cuba.

 

Keywords: COVID-19; Age; Prognosis; Objective Regression Regression (ORR); Suspects

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Citation: Rigoberto Fimia-Duarte., et al. “Age Prediction for COVID-19 Suspects and Contacts in Villa Clara Province, Cuba”. EC Veterinary Science 6.4 (2021): 41-51.

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